Michael Bay's over-the-top robot extravaganza sequel, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, has already grossed $60.6 million on its opening day, so we know that the fanboys have turned out in force. In fact, the movie is destined to cross the $100 million mark before it even reaches the weekend. But how the film fares over the five-day, Wednesday-through-Sunday period is going to be determined by its core fans' repeat business, the impact of their word of mouth, and how broad the film plays (which, if you take my 3-year-old son's rabid interest in the giant robots, is incredibly wide). One thing is for sure: Fused metal will be the star of the multiplex this weekend, and it's bound to take theaters by storm. The following predictions are for the usual three-day frame, by the way.
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen -- $72.5 millionTwo years ago, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix opened on a Wednesday, and by the end of the weekend it had grossed $139.7 million. Transformers 2 is guaranteed to blow by that record...and go way beyond. It's not likely to get to the $203 million that The Dark Knight scored in its first five days of release, but Michael Bay's movie is going to work damn hard trying. The movie is opening in more than 4,000 theaters, including 169 IMAX screens, and will prove a big win for distributor Paramount, which will now be able to claim two of the summer's biggest hits: Transformers 2 and Star Trek.
2. The Proposal -- $20 millionBy Friday, Sandra Bullock's romantic comedy will have grossed $50 million in one week. Not bad for an actress who had all but abandoned the genre! Word of mouth has been solid on the movie, and expectations are high that the film, featuring a star-making performance by Ryan Reynolds, will hold on well during its sophomore session.
3. The Hangover -- $16 millionWarner Bros.' R-rated Vegas comedy isn't going away anytime soon. And its unbelievable hold last weekend is really impressive. It is inevitable, however, that the movie, which has already grossed $163 million, will get hit this frame with Transformers 2 steamrolling into theaters.
4. Up -- $14 millionPixar's latest animated hit has already surpassed WALL-E's grosses, and its sights are now set on surpassing Cars' $244 million cume. Transformers 2 will take out some of Pixar's audience, but with Ice Age 3 coming into theaters next weekend, this is really its last chance to stay in the Top 5.
5. My Sister's Keeper -- $12 millionThis three-hanky Cameron Diaz weepfest has generated some solid reviews, especially for the lead actress herself. So it will be very interesting to see how the film fares as the main counter-programming option for the weekend. With all the light and fluffy fare dominating the box office, it's likely that My Sister's Keeper's serious themes of a family dealing with a sick child may be too tough for the public to embrace. Some predictors have it in the single digits. I'm hopeful that the combination of star power and fan interest in the Jodi Picoult bestseller on which the movie is based will propel it into double-digit territory.
